Methods and apparatus to estimate population reach from marginals

Patent metadata

Field	Value
Publication number	US-12271925-B2
Application number	US-202217961514-A
Country	US
Kind code	B2
Filing date	Oct 6, 2022
Priority date	Apr 8, 2020
Publication date	Apr 8, 2025
Grant date	Apr 8, 2025

Abstract

Methods, apparatus, systems, and articles of manufacture are disclosed to estimate population reach from marginals. An example apparatus includes memory including computer readable instructions; and a processor to execute the instructions to: iteratively converge on an output estimate of a pseudo universe estimate of a recorded audience of first media based on (A) a recorded reach for the recorded audience of the first media and (B) first marginal ratings for the recorded audience of the first media; determine a panel representation value based on the pseudo universe estimate of the recorded audience of the first media; and iteratively converge on an output estimate of a final reach of second media for a population audience based on the panel representation value and second marginal ratings for the population audience of the second media.

First claim

What is claimed is:

1. A computing system to determine reach of media from marginal rating measurements, the computing system comprising:
a plurality of audience measurement meters configured to detect user exposure to media by capturing signals emitted externally by televisions, wherein the plurality of audience measurement meters comprise respective cameras to detect a presence of a user in respective media presentation locations; and
an audience measurement system configured to perform a set of acts comprising:
receiving, from the plurality of audience measurement meters via a network, meter data collectively indicative of a panel reach measurement for a television show at a first time and first panel marginal rating measurements for the television show at the first time,
obtaining, from a media provider via the network, return path data indicative of first population marginal rating measurements for the television show at a first time and second population marginal rating measurements for the television show at the second time,
performing a first plurality of process iterations to iteratively converge on a pseudo universe estimate for the television show at the first time based on the panel reach measurement for the television show at the first time, the first marginal rating measurements for the television show at the first time, and the first population marginal rating measurements for the television show at the first time,
determining a panel representation value for the television show based on the pseudo universe estimate and the panel reach measurement,
storing the panel representation value in a database for reuse in subsequent reach determinations,
performing a second plurality of process iterations to iteratively converge on a reach estimate for the television show at a second time based on the panel representation value stored in the database and the second population marginal rating measurements for the television show at the second time, and
outputting the reach estimate for the television show at the second time.

2. A method to determine reach of media from marginal rating measurements, the method comprising:
detecting, by a plurality of audience measurement meters, user exposure to media by capturing signals emitted externally by televisions, wherein the plurality of audience measurement meters comprise respective cameras to detect a presence of a user in respective media presentation locations;
receiving, by an audience measurement system, from the plurality of audience measurement meters via a network, meter data collectively indicative of a panel reach measurement for a television show at a first time and first panel marginal rating measurements for the television show at the first time;
obtaining, by the audience measurement system from a media provider via the network, return path data indicative of first population marginal rating measurements for the television show at a first time and second population marginal rating measurements for the television show at the second time;
performing, by the audience measurement system, a first plurality of process iterations to iteratively converge on a pseudo universe estimate for the television show at a first time based on the panel reach measurement for the television show at the first time, the first marginal rating measurements for the television show at the first time, and the first population marginal rating measurements for the television show at the first time;
determining, by the audience measurement system, a panel representation value for the television show based on the pseudo universe estimate and the panel reach measurement;
storing, by the audience measurement system, the panel representation value in a database for reuse in subsequent reach determinations;
performing, by the audience measurement system, a second plurality of process iterations to iteratively converge on a reach estimate for television show at a second time based on the panel representation value stored in the database and the second population marginal rating measurements for the television show at the second time; and
utputting the reach estimate for the television show at the second time.

Assignees

• Nielsen Co Us Llc

Inventors

• Sheppard Michael
• Daemen Ludo
• Forthomme Damien
• Dailey Jake

Classifications

• G06Q30/0277

  Online advertisement · CPC title

• H04N21/812

  involving advertisement data (advertising per se G06Q30/02) · CPC title

• H04N21/44204

  Monitoring of content usage, e.g. the number of times a movie has been viewed, copied or the amount which has been watched (monitoring of user activities for profile generation for accessing a video database G06F16/739; protecting generic digital content where the protection is independent of the precise nature of the content G06F21/10; arrangements for monitoring the use made of the broadcast services in broadcast systems H04H60/31) · CPC title

• G06Q30/0246 Primary

  Traffic · CPC title