Methods and apparatus to estimate population reach from different marginal rating unions

Patent metadata

Field	Value
Publication number	US-11689767-B2
Application number	US-202217734792-A
Country	US
Kind code	B2
Filing date	May 2, 2022
Priority date	Feb 28, 2017
Publication date	Jun 27, 2023
Grant date	Jun 27, 2023

Abstract

Example methods, apparatus, systems, and articles of manufacture are disclosed to estimate population reach for different unions based on marginal ratings. An example apparatus includes memory and processor circuitry to determine a population reach estimate of a union of time intervals for which media ratings data is available, the population reach estimate based on a pseudo universe estimate of a population audience corresponding to the union of the time intervals; determine a pseudo universe estimate of a recorded audience corresponding to the union of the time intervals; determine the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience based on the pseudo universe estimate of the recorded audience; and in response to a decision to update the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience to reduce an error of the population reach estimate output the population reach estimate of the union when the error of the population reach estimate satisfies a threshold.

First claim

What is claimed is:

1. An apparatus comprising:
at least one memory;
instructions; and
processor circuitry to execute the instruction to at least:
determine a population reach estimate of a union of time intervals for which media ratings data is available, the population reach estimate based on a pseudo universe estimate of a population audience corresponding to the union of the time intervals;
determine a pseudo universe estimate of a recorded audience corresponding to the union of the time intervals;
determine the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience based on the pseudo universe estimate of the recorded audience; and
in response to a decision to update the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience to reduce an error of the population reach estimate:
adjust the population reach estimate of the union;
apply a correction to the population reach estimate of the union to maintain a condition associated with the population reach estimate; and
output the population reach estimate of the union when the error of the population reach estimate satisfies a threshold.

2. The apparatus of claim 1 , wherein the processor circuitry is to adjust the population reach estimate of the union to fit within a range defined by a lower bound and an upper bound.

3. The apparatus of claim 2 , wherein the processor circuitry is to apply the correction to the population reach estimate of the union by:
determining a correction for the union reach estimate when the union reach estimate is not within the range;
iteratively adjusting the range based on the correction until all unions are satisfy a condition; and
adjusting the union reach estimate based on the correction.

4. The apparatus of claim 2 , wherein the lower bound is a second population reach estimate corresponding to a subset of the union of the time intervals.

5. The apparatus of claim 2 , wherein the upper bound is at least one of (A) a sum of reach estimates for a plurality of subsets of the union or (B) a universe estimate of users that potentially could be exposed to media corresponding to the media ratings data.

6. The apparatus of claim 5 , wherein the union is a first union, the lower bound is a first lower bound, the upper bound is a first upper bound, the range is a first range, the population reach estimate is a first population reach estimate, and when the processor circuitry adjusts the population reach estimate of the first union, the processor circuitry is to adjust at least one of a second lower bound or a second upper bound of a second population reach estimate of a second union of the time intervals is adjusted, the processor circuitry to adjust the first population reach estimate of the first union to ensure that the second population reach estimate of the second union of the time intervals is within a second range defined by the second lower bound and the second upper bound.

7. The apparatus of claim 1 , wherein the pseudo universe estimate of the recorded audience corresponds to a recorded reach for subsets of the union of the time intervals, and the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience corresponds to a population reach for the subsets of the union of the time intervals.

8. The apparatus of claim 7 , wherein:
the pseudo universe estimate of the recorded audience corresponds to a first universe estimate that assures independency among recorded audience data for the subsets of the union of the time intervals; and
the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience corresponds to a second universe estimate that assures independency among population audience data for the subsets of the union of the time intervals.

9. The apparatus of claim 1 , wherein the error corresponds to a difference between (A) a first relationship based on the population reach estimate of the union of the time intervals and the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience of the union of the time intervals, and (B) a second relationship based on population reach estimates for subsets of the union of the time intervals and the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience of the union of the time intervals.

10. A non-transitory computer readable medium comprising instructions which, when executed cause one or more processors to at least:
determine a population reach estimate of a union of time intervals for which media ratings data is available, the population reach estimate based on a pseudo universe estimate of a population audience corresponding to the union of the time intervals;
determine a pseudo universe estimate of a recorded audience corresponding to the union of the time intervals;
determine the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience based on the pseudo universe estimate of the recorded audience; and
in response to a decision to update the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience to reduce an error of the population reach estimate:
adjust the population reach estimate of the union;
apply a correction to the population reach estimate of the union to maintain a condition associated with the population reach estimate; and
output the population reach estimate of the union when the error of the population reach estimate satisfies a threshold.

11. The computer readable medium of claim 10 , wherein the instructions cause the one or more processors to adjust the population reach estimate of the union to fit within a range defined by a lower bound and an upper bound.

12. The computer readable medium of claim 11 , wherein the instructions cause the one or more processors to apply the correction to the population reach estimate of the union by:
determining a correction for the union reach estimate when the union reach estimate is not within the range;
iteratively adjusting the range based on the correction until all unions are satisfy a condition; and
adjusting the union reach estimate based on the correction.

13. The computer readable medium of claim 11 , wherein the lower bound is a second population reach estimate corresponding to a subset of the union of the time intervals.

14. The computer readable medium of claim 11 , wherein the upper bound is at least one of (A) a sum of reach estimates for a plurality of subsets of the union or (B) a universe estimate of users that potentially could be exposed to media corresponding to the media ratings data.

15. The computer readable medium of claim 11 , wherein the instructions cause the one or more processors to adjust the population reach estimate of the union to be between the lower bound and the upper bound.

16. The computer readable medium of claim 15 , wherein the union is a first union, the lower bound is a first lower bound, the upper bound is a first upper bound, the population reach estimate is a first population reach estimate, and when the instructions cause the one or more processors to adjust the population reach estimate of the first union, the instructions to cause the one or more processors to adjust at least one of a second lower bound or a second upper bound of a second population reach estimate of a second union of the time intervals is adjusted and adjust the first population reach estimate of the first union to ensure that the second population reach estimate of the second union of the time intervals is between the second lower bound and the second upper bound.

17. The computer readable medium of claim 10 , wherein the pseudo universe estimate of the recorded audience corresponds to a recorded reach for subsets of the union of the time intervals, and the pseudo universe estimate of the

Assignees

• Nielsen Co Us Llc

Inventors

• Sheppard Michael
• Sullivan Jonathan
• Murphy Edward
• Morgan Michael
• Daemen Ludo

Classifications

• H04N21/252

  Processing of multiple end-users' preferences to derive collaborative data · CPC title

• G06Q30/0201 Primary

  Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data · CPC title

• H04N21/44224 Primary

  Monitoring of user activity on external systems, e.g. Internet browsing · CPC title

• H04N21/4665

  involving classification methods, e.g. Decision trees · CPC title

• H04N21/25883

  being end-user demographical data, e.g. age, family status or address (arrangements for identifying locations of users in broadcast systems H04H60/52) · CPC title