State trajectory prediction in an electric power delivery system

Patent metadata

Field	Value
Publication number	US-9819227-B2
Application number	US-201414190470-A
Country	US
Kind code	B2
Filing date	Feb 26, 2014
Priority date	Feb 26, 2013
Publication date	Nov 14, 2017
Grant date	Nov 14, 2017

Abstract

Disclosed is state trajectory prediction in an electric power delivery system. Electric power delivery system information is calculated from measurements by intelligent electronic devices (IEDs), and communicated to a state trajectory prediction system. The state trajectory prediction system may be configured to generate a load prediction profile. The load prediction profile may provide a predicted response of a load at a future time. Further, the state trajectory prediction system may be configured to generate a generator prediction profile that provides a predicted response of a generator at a future time. The state trajectory prediction system may generate a state trajectory prediction based, at least in part, on the load prediction profile and the generator prediction profile. The state trajectory prediction may represent a future state of the electric power delivery system.

First claim

What is claimed is:

1. A system for state trajectory prediction in an electric power delivery system, comprising:
a data communication network configured to gather a plurality of values based on measurements associated with the electric power delivery system;
a power flow calculation subsystem configured to:
initialize a plurality of time-synchronized complex values representing electrical conditions at a plurality of buses in the electric power delivery system;
identify each bus with positive power flow as a generator; and
identify each bus with a negative power flow as a load;

a state trajectory prediction system in communication with the data communication network and configured to receive the values and to use the values to develop:
a load prediction profile associated with at least one bus identified as a load and based, at least in part, on the measurements of the electric power delivery system and the plurality of time-synchronized complex values, the load prediction profile configured to provide a predicted response of a load at a future time;
a generator prediction profile associated with at least one bus identified as a generator and based, at least in part, on the measurements of the electric power delivery system and the plurality of time-synchronized complex values, the generator prediction profile configured to provide a predicted response of a generator at the future time;
a plurality of predicted values configured to represent the electric power delivery system over a period of time and determined based on an iterative computation of the predicted response of the load and the prediction response of the generator at a plurality of step intervals;
a state trajectory prediction configured to represent a future state of the electric power delivery system based, at least in part, on the plurality of predicted values, the plurality of time-synchronized complex values, and identification of each bus; and

a control system configured to implement a control action based, at least in part, on the state trajectory prediction.

2. The system of claim 1 , wherein each of the plurality of step intervals comprises about 5 seconds.

3. The system of claim 1 , wherein the state trajectory estimation system further comprises a display subsystem configured to display a representation of the future state of the electric power delivery system.

4. The system of claim 3 , wherein the display subsystem is further configured to provide a graph representing at least one metric of the future state of the electric power delivery system.

5. The system of claim 4 , wherein the graph represents one of a frequency, a voltage magnitude, a voltage angle, a current magnitude, a current angle, a real power magnitude, and a reactive power magnitude.

6. The system of claim 3 , wherein the display system is further configured to provide a map configured to display the at least one of the predicted response of the load and the predicted response of the generator over a period of time that encompasses the future time.

7. The system of claim 1 , wherein the period of time comprises approximately 30 minutes.

8. The system of claim 1 , further comprising a control device prediction profile configured to provide a predicted response of a control device at the future time; and wherein the state trajectory prediction is further based on the predicted response of the control device.

9. The system of claim 1 , further comprising a topology determination sub-system configured to determine changes to a topology of the electric power delivery system; and
wherein the state trajectory prediction is further developed based, at least in part, on the topology of the electric power delivery system.

10. A method for predicting a state trajectory in an electric power delivery system, comprising:
receiving a plurality of values based on measurements associated with an electric power delivery system;
initializing a plurality of time-synchronized complex values representing electrical conditions at a plurality of buses in the electric power delivery system;
identifying each bus with positive power flow as a generator;
identifying each bus with a negative power flow as a load;
obtaining a topology of the electric power delivery system;
determining a predicted response of a load at a future time using a load prediction profile;
determining a prediction response of a generator at a future time using a generator prediction profile;
iteratively computing a plurality of values representing the electric power delivery system over a period of time based on the predicted response of the load and the prediction response of the generator;
generating a state trajectory prediction representing a future state of the electric power delivery system based, at least in part, on the load prediction profile and the generator prediction profile;
implementing a control action based, at least in part, on the state trajectory prediction.

11. The method of claim 10 , wherein the predicted response of the load is determined by iteratively advancing the load prediction profile using a power flow calculation system over a plurality of step intervals.

12. The method of claim 10 , wherein the predicted response of the generator is determined by iteratively advancing the generator prediction profile using a power flow calculation system over a plurality of step intervals.

13. The method of claim 10 , further comprising displaying a representation of the future state of the electric power delivery system.

14. The method of claim 13 , wherein the representation of the future state of the electric power delivery system comprises one of a graph and a map, the graph and the map representing at least one metric of the future state of the electric power delivery system.

15. The method of claim 10 , further comprising determining a predicted response of a control device at the future time; and wherein generating the state trajectory prediction is further based on the predicted response of the control device.

16. A system for state trajectory prediction in an electric power delivery system, comprising:
a bus;
a processor in communication with the bus; and
a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium, comprising:
a load prediction profile module executable on the processor and configured to provide a predicted response of a load at a future time;
a generator prediction profile module executable on the processor and configured to provide a predicted response of a generator at the future time;
a power flow module executable on the processor and configured to:
initialize a plurality of time-synchronized complex values representing electrical conditions at a plurality of buses in the electric power delivery system;
identify each bus with positive power flow as a generator; and
identify each bus with a negative power flow as a load;

determine a plurality of predicted values configured to represent the electric power delivery system over a period of time and determined based on an iterative computation of the predicted response of the load and the prediction response of the generator at a plurality of step intervals; and
a state trajectory prediction module executable on the processor and configured to predict a future state of the electric power delivery system based, at least in part, on the plurality of predicted values.

17. The system of claim 16 , further comprising:
a control device prediction module executable on the processor and configured to provide a predicted response of a control device at the future time; and

Assignees

• Schweitzer Engineering Lab Inc

Inventors

• Zweigle Gregary C
• Hewitt Eric J
• Blood Ellery A

Classifications

• H02J3/003

  Load forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future load demand · CPC title

• H02J13/333

  the equipment forming part of substations · CPC title

• H02J13/12

  Monitoring network conditions, e.g. electrical magnitudes or operational status · CPC title

• H02J13/10 Primary

  characterised by displaying of information or by user interaction, e.g. supervisory control and data acquisition [SCADA] systems · CPC title

• Y04S10/18

  using switches, relays or circuit breakers, e.g. intelligent electronic devices [IED] · CPC title