System and method for inferring operational specifications of a fleet of photovoltaic power generation systems with the aid of a digital computer

Patent metadata

Field	Value
Publication number	US-9740803-B2
Application number	US-201414223926-A
Country	US
Kind code	B2
Filing date	Mar 24, 2014
Priority date	Jul 25, 2011
Publication date	Aug 22, 2017
Grant date	Aug 22, 2017

Abstract

Operational specifications of a photovoltaic plant configuration can be inferred through evaluation of historical measured system production data and measured solar resource data. Based upon the location of the photovoltaic plant, a time-series power generation data set is simulated based on a normalized and preferably substantially linearly-scalable solar power simulation model. The simulation is run for a range of hypothetical photovoltaic system configurations. The simulation can be done probabilistically. A power rating is derived for each system configuration by comparison of the measured versus simulated production data, which is applied to scale up the simulated time-series data. The simulated energy production is statistically compared to actual historical data, and the system configuration reflecting the lowest overall error is identified as the inferred (and optimal) system configuration. Inferred configurations of photovoltaic plants in a photovoltaic fleet can be aggregated into a configuration of the fleet.

First claim

What is claimed is:

1. A method for inferring operational specifications of a fleet of photovoltaic power generation systems with the aid of a digital computer, comprising the steps of:
providing a computer with historical power production data measured over an earlier time period for and also locations of a plurality of photovoltaic power generation plants comprised in a photovoltaic power generation fleet;
providing the computer with a preexisting configuration for at least one such photovoltaic power generation plant;
providing the computer with historical measured irradiance data over the earlier time period for the locations;
defining with the computer a plurality of hypothetical photovoltaic plant configurations that each comprise a power rating and operational features hypothesized for the plants;
determining with the computer a configuration for each of the plants, comprising:
simulating with the computer power output production data for each of the hypothetical photovoltaic plant configurations based on a normalized photovoltaic power generation plant using the historical measured irradiance data for the earlier time period;
deriving with the computer a simulated photovoltaic system rating as a function of the historical power production data for that plant and the simulated power output production data;
scaling with the computer the simulated power output production data by the simulated photovoltaic system rating over each point in the earlier time period; and
inferring with the computer the configuration of that plant from the hypothetical photovoltaic plant configuration that exhibits a minimal error between the scaled simulated power output production data and the historical power production data for that plant;

aggregating with the computer the inferred configurations of the plants into a configuration of the photovoltaic power generation fleet;
modifying with the computer the preexisting configuration used by a production output controller for the at least one such photovoltaic power generation plant with the inferred configuration for that at least one such photovoltaic power generation plant; and
operating the at least one such photovoltaic power generation plant based on the modified preexisting configuration.

2. A method according to claim 1 , further comprising the steps of:
calculating with the computer irradiance statistics based on the historical measured irradiance data; and
estimating with the computer photovoltaic production data for the fleet based on the irradiance statistics and the configuration of the fleet.

3. A method according to claim 2 , further comprising the steps of:
generating power statistics for each of the plants with the computer based on the irradiance statistics and the inferred configuration of that plant;
combining with the computer the power statistics for all of the plants in the fleet; and
using with the computer the combined power statistics for the estimation.

4. A method according to claim 1 ,
wherein the step of modifying the preexisting configuration comprises one of the steps of:
correcting with the computer the preexisting configuration based on the inferred configuration; and
replacing with the computer the preexisting configuration with the inferred configuration.

5. A method according to claim 1 , further comprising the steps of:
dividing with the computer the earlier time period into a plurality of individual time periods and segmenting with the computer the historical power production data according to the individual time periods;
simulating with the computer the power output production data for each of the hypothetical photovoltaic plant configurations using only the historical measured irradiance data within each of the individual time periods; and
for each of the individual time periods, inferring with the computer the configuration of each of the plants during that time period from the hypothetical photovoltaic plant configuration that exhibits a minimal error between the scaled simulated power output production data and the historical power production data for that plant within that individual time period.

6. A method according to claim 5 , further comprising the steps of:
detecting with the computer a mismatch between the inferred configurations of one of the plants for two or more of the individual time periods; and
modifying with the computer one or more of the hypothetical photovoltaic plant configurations based on the mismatch.

7. A method according to claim 6 , further comprising the step of:
selecting with the computer the configuration inferred for a most recent of the individual time periods as the inferred configuration of the plant with the mismatched configurations.

8. A method according to claim 1 , further comprising the steps of:
comparing with the computer the simulated power output production data for one or more of the hypothetical photovoltaic plant configurations to the simulated power output production data for the inferred configuration of one of the plants; and
proposing a change to the inferred configuration of the plant with the computer based on the comparison.

9. A method according to claim 8 , wherein the change comprises one or more of revising one or more of a tracking mode, azimuth, tilt, row-to-row spacing, tracking rotation limit, shading, and a degree to which one or more parameters of the configurations are varied.

10. A method according to claim 1 , wherein the simulated power output production data comprises a mean and a standard deviation of a power output for that hypothetical photovoltaic plant configuration.

11. A method for probabilistically inferring operational specifications of a photovoltaic power generation system with the aid of a digital computer, comprising the steps of:
providing a computer with historical power production data measured over an earlier time period for and also a location of a photovoltaic power generation plant;
providing the computer with a preexisting configuration for the photovoltaic power generation plant;
providing the computer with historical measured irradiance data over the earlier time period for the locations;
defining with the computer a plurality of hypothetical photovoltaic plant configurations that each comprise a power rating and operational features hypothesized for the plant;
simulating with the computer power output production data for each of the hypothetical photovoltaic plant configurations based on a normalized photovoltaic power generation plant using the historical measured irradiance data for the earlier time period, the simulated power output production data comprising a mean and a standard deviation of a power output for that hypothetical photovoltaic plant configuration;
deriving a simulated photovoltaic system rating with the computer as a function of the historical power production data and the simulated power output production data;
scaling the simulated power output production data with the computer by the simulated photovoltaic system rating over each point in the earlier time period;
inferring the plant's configuration with the computer from the hypothetical photovoltaic plant configuration that exhibits a minimal error between the scaled simulated power output production data and the historical power production data;
modifying with the computer the preexisting configuration used by a production output controller for the photovoltaic power generation plant with the inferred configuration for that photovoltaic power generation plant; and
operating the photovoltaic power generation plant based on the modified preexisting configuration.

12. A method according

Assignees

• Clean Power Res L L C

Inventors

• Hoff Thomas E

Classifications

• H02J3/004 Primary

  Generation forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future energy generation · CPC title

• H02J2103/30

  Simulating, planning, modelling, reliability check or computer assisted design [CAD] of electric power networks · CPC title

• H02J2101/24

  Photovoltaics · CPC title

• H02S50/10

  Testing of PV devices, e.g. of PV modules or single PV cells (testing of semiconductor devices during manufacturing {H10P74/00}) · CPC title

• G06Q10/04

  Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" (market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202) · CPC title