Detecting patterns that increase the risk of late delivery of a software project

Patent metadata

Field	Value
Publication number	US-9563864-B2
Application number	US-201414178995-A
Country	US
Kind code	B2
Filing date	Feb 12, 2014
Priority date	Jun 1, 2012
Publication date	Feb 7, 2017
Grant date	Feb 7, 2017

Abstract

Historic and current development data associated with the project may be gathered. A catalog of patterns, each pattern associated with a data measure and an analysis routine capable of detecting the pattern according to the data measure in a given data set may be obtained. A pattern describes a particular indication in the historical and development data, which arises one or more of, at a discrete point in time or over a period of time. The analysis routine may be applied to the historic and current development data. A notification may be issued responsive to identifying the pattern in the historic and current development data. The applying and the issuing may be performed for each pattern in the catalog of patterns.

First claim

We claim:

1. A method of detecting patterns that increase a risk of late delivery of a project, comprising:
gathering historic and current development data associated with the project;
obtaining a catalog of patterns, each pattern associated with a data measure and an analysis routine capable of detecting a pattern according to the data measure in a given data set;
executing the analysis routine associated with the pattern to the historic and current development data to identify the pattern in the historic and current development data; and
issuing a notification responsive to identifying the pattern in the historic and current development data,
wherein the executing and the issuing are performed for said each pattern in the catalog of patterns,
the catalog of patterns comprising at least a pattern that arises in the project indicating what has gone wrong in the project to threaten on-time delivery of the project, the pattern in the historic and current development data detected based on a series of predicted likelihood of on-time delivery of the project predicted over time by a combination of machine learning and stochastic simulation, wherein the machine learning comprises training a machine learning algorithm to predict an estimated effort needed to complete each of unfinished tasks belonging to the project based on a set of completed tasks belonging to the project if available and a set of completed tasks not belonging to the project if available, the stochastic simulation comprising a Monte Carlo simulation based on repeated random sampling of scheduling and assigning of the unfinished tasks to team members subject to resources and scheduling constraints.

2. The method of claim 1 , wherein the historic and current development data comprise work items with work item attributes, the work item attributes comprising one or more of user generated or machine generated work item attributes.

3. The method of claim 1 , wherein the analysis routine is specific to the pattern and is designed as part of a definition of the pattern.

4. The method of claim 1 , wherein the pattern describes a particular indication in the historical and development data, which arises one or more of, at a discrete point in time or over a period of time.

5. The method of claim 1 , wherein the identified pattern comprises a composite pattern that comprises two or more combinations of single type of pattern.

6. The method of claim 1 , wherein the historical and current development data comprises at least information associated with estimates and a likelihood of tasks in the project taking estimated lengths of time and actual lengths of time the tasks in the project have taken.

7. The method of claim 1 , wherein the issuing a notification comprises:
providing a description of the pattern that is identified to a user.

8. The method of claim 1 , wherein the issuing a notification comprises:
providing an explanation via a graphical user interface of where in the data the pattern was identified.

9. The method of claim 1 , wherein the issuing a notification comprises:
providing guidance that is associated with the pattern that is identified on how to remediate.

10. The method of claim 1 , wherein the issuing a notification comprises:
providing historic information about past instances of the pattern in different contexts along with information associated with outcomes of the past instances and one or more actions that were taken to address the past instances of the pattern and how often the pattern was identified.

11. A system for detecting patterns that increase a risk of late delivery of a project, comprising:
a processor;
a diagnosis module operable to execute on the processor and further operable to gather historic and current development data associated with the project, the processor further operable to obtain a catalog of patterns, each pattern associated with a data measure and an analysis routine capable of detecting the pattern according to the data measure in a given data set, and for each pattern in the catalog of patterns, the processor further operable to apply the analysis routine to the historic and current development data to identify the pattern in the historic and current development data, and issue a notification responsive to identifying the pattern in the historic and current development data; and
a graphical user interface module operable to execute on the processor and further operable to present the notification on a graphical user interface,
the catalog of patterns comprising at least a pattern that arises in the project indicting what has gone wrong in the project to threaten on-time delivery of the project, the pattern in the historic and current development data detected based on a series of predicted likelihood of on-time delivery of the project predicted over time by a combination of machine learning and stochastic simulation, wherein the machine learning comprises training a machine learning algorithm to predict an estimated effort needed to complete each of unfinished tasks belonging to the project based on a set of completed tasks belonging to the project if available and a set of completed tasks not belonging to the project if available, the stochastic simulation comprising a Monte Carlo simulation based on repeated random sampling of scheduling and assigning of the unfinished tasks to team members subject to resources and scheduling constraints.

12. The system of claim 11 , wherein the historic and current development data comprise work items with work item attributes, the work item attributes comprising one or more of user generated or machine generated work item attributes.

13. The system of claim 11 , wherein the analysis routine is specific to the pattern and is designed as part of a definition of the pattern, and the pattern describes a particular indication in the historical and development data, which arises one or more of, at a discrete point in time or over a period of time.

14. The system of claim 11 , wherein the historical and current development data comprises at least information associated with estimates and a likelihood of tasks in the project taking estimated lengths of time and actual lengths of time the tasks in the project have taken.

15. The system of claim 11 , wherein the processor is further operable to provide a description of the pattern that is identified to a user, provide an explanation via a graphical user interface of where in the data the pattern was identified, provide guidance that is associated with the pattern that is identified on how to remediate, and provide historic information about past instances of the pattern in different contexts along with information associated with outcomes of the past instances and one or more actions that were taken to address the past instances of the pattern and how often the pattern was identified.

16. A non-transitory computer readable storage medium storing a program of instructions executable by a machine to perform a method of detecting patterns that increase a risk of late delivery of a project, the method comprising:
gathering historic and current development data associated with the project;
obtaining a catalog of patterns, each pattern associated with a data measure and an analysis routine capable of detecting the pattern according to the data measure in a given data set, wherein the pattern describes a particular indication in the historical and development data, which arises one or more of, at a discrete point in time or over a period of time;
executing the analysis routine associated with the pattern to the histo

Assignees

• IBM

Inventors

• Cantor Murray R
• Duesterwald Evelyn
• Klinger Tamir
• Malkin Peter K
• Matchen Paul M
• Sutton Stanley M
• Tarr Peri L
• Wegman Mark N

Classifications

• G06Q10/0635

  Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities · CPC title

• G06Q10/06313

  Resource planning in a project environment · CPC title

• G06Q10/06312

  Adjustment or analysis of established resource schedule, e.g. resource or task levelling, or dynamic rescheduling · CPC title

• G06Q10/0633

  Workflow analysis · CPC title

• G06Q10/063114 Primary

  Status monitoring or status determination for a person or group · CPC title