Predicting an outcome of the execution of a schedule

Patent metadata

Field	Value
Publication number	US-2017147985-A1
Application number	US-201514952661-A
Country	US
Kind code	A1
Filing date	Nov 25, 2015
Priority date	Nov 25, 2015
Publication date	May 25, 2017
Grant date	—

Abstract

A computer implemented method, computer program product and system for predicting an outcome of the execution of a schedule. The schedule, endogenous data relating to one or more activities or the schedule, and exogenous data relating to one or more activities or the schedule is processed in accordance with a machine learning algorithm-generated prediction model to predict at least one of: a performance measure, and a final condition that may result from executing the one or more activities according to the schedule.

First claim

1 . A method for predicting an outcome of executing a predetermined schedule, the method comprising:
receiving schedule data relating to a schedule of activities; receiving endogenous data relating to one or more of said activities and said schedule, wherein said endogenous data relates to one or more endogenous variables or parameters of one or more of said activities and said schedule that can be altered by a relationship between one or more of said activities and said schedule whereby said endogenous data are percentage predictions, wherein said endogenous data comprises data related to reliability of machinery used to execute an activity of said schedule, availability of resources used by an activity of said schedule, planned maintenance of equipment and performance degradation rates; receiving exogenous data relating to one or more of said activities and said schedule, wherein said exogenous data relates to one or more exogenous variables or parameters that can affect one or more of said activities and said schedule without being affected by one or more of said activities and said schedule whereby said exogenous data are descriptive of facts; processing said schedule data, said endogenous data and said exogenous data to extract features; utilizing, by a processor, a prediction model generated using a machine learning algorithm in conjunction with said extracted features to predict performance measures resulting from executing activities according to said schedule, wherein said performance measures are used by a user to determine if said schedule needs to be altered to meet a target performance; detecting at least one of a performance measure, and a final condition resultant from executing one or more activities according to said schedule; determining a deviation between: the detected performance measure and/or final condition, and a planned or predicted performance measure and/or final condition; and generating a revised prediction model based on the determined deviation.

2 . (canceled)

3 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the endogenous data comprises historical data relating to one or more previously obtained values for a variable or parameter of the one or more activities or the schedule.

4 . The method of claim 3 , wherein the one or more previously obtained values are resultant from executing one or more activities according to the schedule or a similar schedule.

5 . The method of claim 1 , wherein said features comprise workload on resources, time slack between activities on resources, overlap duration between activities and common resource usages between activities.

6 . The method of claim 1 , further comprising:
training the machine learning algorithm with one or more previously obtained performance measures or final condition.

7 . The method of claim 6 , wherein the one or more previously obtained performance measures or final conditions are resultant from executing one or more activities according to at least one of: the schedule, and a differing schedule with the same or similar endogenous data, exogenous data, and/or event data.

8 . (canceled)

9 . The method of claim 1 , wherein said exogenous data is user-defined and automatically detected and provided by a sensing arrangement that is adapted to monitor external conditions.

10 . A computer program product for predicting an outcome of executing one or more activities according to a predetermined schedule, the computer program product comprising a computer readable storage medium having program code embodied therewith, the program code comprising the programming instructions for:
receiving schedule data relating to a schedule of activities; receiving endogenous data relating to one or more of said activities and said schedule, wherein said endogenous data relates to one or more endogenous variables or parameters of one or more of said activities and said schedule that can be altered by a relationship between one or more of said activities and said schedule whereby said endogenous data are percentage predictions, wherein said endogenous data comprises data related to reliability of machinery used to execute an activity of said schedule, availability of resources used by an activity of said schedule, planned maintenance of equipment and performance degradation rates; receiving exogenous data relating to one or more of said activities and said schedule, wherein said exogenous data relates to one or more exogenous variables or parameters that can affect one or more of said activities and said schedule without being affected by one or more of said activities and said schedule whereby said exogenous data are descriptive of facts; processing said schedule data, said endogenous data and said exogenous data to extract features; utilizing a prediction model generated using a machine learning algorithm in conjunction with said extracted features to predict performance measures resulting from executing activities according to said schedule, wherein said performance measures are used by a user to determine if said schedule needs to be altered to meet a target performance; detecting at least one of a performance measure, and a final condition resultant from executing one or more activities according to said schedule; determining a deviation between: the detected performance measure and/or final condition, and a planned or predicted performance measure and/or final condition; and generating a revised prediction model based on the determined deviation.

11 - 20 . (canceled)

21 . The computer program product of claim 10 , wherein the endogenous data comprises historical data relating to one or more previously obtained values for a variable or parameter of the one or more activities or the schedule.

22 . The computer program product of claim 21 , wherein the one or more previously obtained values are resultant from executing one or more activities according to the schedule or a similar schedule.

23 . The computer program product of claim 10 , wherein said features comprise workload on resources, time slack between activities on resources, overlap duration between activities and common resource usages between activities.

24 . The computer program product of claim 10 , wherein the program code further comprises the programming instructions for:
training the machine learning algorithm with one or more previously obtained performance measures or final conditions.

25 . The computer program product of claim 24 , wherein the one or more previously obtained performance measures or final conditions are resultant from executing one or more activities according to at least one of: the schedule, and a differing schedule with the same or similar endogenous data, exogenous data, and/or event data.

26 . (canceled)

27 . The computer program product of claim 10 , wherein said exogenous data is user-defined and automatically detected and provided by a sensing arrangement that is adapted to monitor external conditions.

28 . A system, comprising:
a memory unit for storing a computer program for predicting an outcome of executing one or more activities according to a predetermined schedule; and a processor coupled to the memory unit, wherein the processor is configured to execute the program instructions of the computer program comprising:
receiving schedule data relating to a schedule of activities;
receiving endogenous data relating to one or more of said activities and said schedule, wherein said endogenous data relates to one or more endogenous variables or parameters of on

Assignees

• IBM

Inventors

• Sampath Kameshwaran
• Tiozzo Fabio

Classifications

• G06N99/005

  Physics · mapped topic

• G06Q10/1093 Primary

  Calendar-based scheduling for persons or groups · CPC title

• G06N20/00

  Machine learning · CPC title