Forecasting for resource allocation

Patent metadata

Field	Value
Publication number	US-12282860-B2
Application number	US-201715855823-A
Country	US
Kind code	B2
Filing date	Dec 27, 2017
Priority date	Dec 27, 2017
Publication date	Apr 22, 2025
Grant date	Apr 22, 2025

Abstract

Forecasting resource allocation is disclosed. An example method includes receiving operating data from a resource; applying periodicity tests to the received operating data using a plurality of sketches of time series of prior operating data, the periodicity tests generating periodic components; applying regression models to the received operating data, the regression models collectively generating a trend component, each regression model being applied over a different time scale of a plurality of time scales; computing a trend model using the periodic components and a trend component; determining a random process describing the historical evolution of the trend model; and calculating and providing a mean prediction, an upper bound, and a lower bound for resource utilization at a future time using the trend model and a predicted distribution.

First claim

What is claimed is:

1. A computer-implemented method for resource utilization forecasting comprising:
receiving operating data from a resource;
applying periodicity tests to the received operating data using a plurality of sketches of time series of prior operating data, the periodicity tests generating periodic components, the plurality of sketches being generated using compression to test for a seasonal periodicity such that the operating data represents data values across an identified repeating time interval, wherein an amount of the compression used on a particular sketch is directly proportional to the time series covered by the sketch to allow each of the plurality of sketches to use a fixed amount of storage;
re-generating at least some of the plurality of sketches when new operating data is received;
applying the periodicity tests to the new operating data using the re-generated sketches to generate updated periodic components;
applying regression models to the received operating data, the regression models collectively generating a trend component, each regression model being estimated over a different time scale of a plurality of time scales, wherein contributions of the regression models to the trend component depend on weights of the regression models, the weights being adjusted based on a value of a future time the trend component being predicted at;
computing a trend model using the periodic components, the updated periodic components, and the trend component, the trend model comprising an additive correction component to compensate for spikes and step discontinuities;
determining a random process describing the historical evolution of the trend model characterizing components in the historical data; and
calculating and providing a mean prediction, an upper bound, and a lower bound for resource utilization at a future time using the trend model and a predicted distribution, wherein the predicted distribution is a parametric probability distribution that is overlaid on the trend model to define the bounds of the mean prediction.

2. The method of claim 1 , wherein each of the plurality of sketches holds a different version of the time series of prior operating data, each of the plurality of sketches has a different amount of compression of the time series of prior operating data, and the plurality of sketches are used by the periodicity tests to test for a range of periodicities using the different amounts of compression in the plurality of sketches.

3. The method of claim 2 , wherein the periodicity tests include a hypothesis test for fitting multiple smooth periodic components, the periodic components including at least one of hourly, daily, weekly, weekend, and weekday.

4. The method of claim 3 , wherein the periodicity tests further include a hypothesis test for periodic spikes in the received operating data and a first subset of sketches from the plurality of sketches of time series of prior operating data.

5. The method of claim 4 , wherein the periodicity tests further include a test for periodicity in the variance in the received operating data and a second subset of sketches from the plurality of sketches of time series of prior operating data.

6. The method of claim 5 , wherein the periodicity tests include a test for arbitrary periodic behavior in the received operating data and a third subset of sketches from the plurality of sketches of time series of prior operating data, the test for arbitrary period behavior including an analysis of cyclic autocorrelation.

7. The method of claim 1 , wherein computing the trend model includes adding the periodic components and the trend component.

8. The method of claim 1 , wherein the regression models of the trend component are combined using a weighted sum.

9. The method of claim 1 , wherein determining the predicted distribution of the trend model includes fitting a Wiener process to the historical evolution of the regression models.

10. The method of claim 8 , wherein determining the random process describing the evolution of the trend model includes modeling statistical properties of at least one of the time between step discontinuities and signed magnitudes of the step discontinuities.

11. The method of claim 1 further comprising:
allocating resources using the mean prediction, the upper bound, and the lower bound.

12. A system comprising:
a processor; and
a memory coupled to the processor, the memory storing instructions executable by the processor to perform a method, the method comprising:
receiving operating data from a resource;
applying periodicity tests to the received operating data using a plurality of sketches of time series of prior operating data, the periodicity tests generating periodic components, the plurality of sketches being generated using compression to test for a seasonal periodicity such that the operating data represents data values across an identified repeating time interval, wherein an amount of the compression used on a particular sketch is directly proportional to the time series covered by the sketch to allow each of the plurality of sketches to use a fixed amount of storage;
re-generating at least some of the plurality of sketches when new operating data is received;
applying the periodicity tests to the new operating data using the re-generated sketches to generate updated periodic components;
applying a plurality of regression models to the received operating data, each regression model being applied over a different time scale, the regression models collectively generating a trend component, wherein contributions of the regression models to the trend component depend on weights of the regression models, the weights being adjusted based on a value of a future time the trend component being predicted at;
computing a trend model using the periodic components, the updated periodic components, and the trend component, the trend model comprising an additive correction component to compensate for spikes and step discontinuities;
determining a random process describing historical evolution of the trend model characterizing components in the historical data; and
calculating and providing a mean prediction, an upper bound, and a lower bound for resource utilization at a future time using the trend model and a predicted distribution, wherein the predicted distribution is a parametric probability distribution that is overlaid on the trend model to define the bounds of the mean prediction.

13. The system of claim 12 , wherein each of the plurality of sketches holds a different version of the time series of the prior operating data, each of the plurality of sketches has a different amount of compression of the time series of the prior operating data, and the plurality of sketches are used by the periodicity tests to test for a range of periodicities using the different amounts of compression of the plurality of sketches.

14. The system of claim 12 , wherein the periodicity tests include a hypothesis test for fitting multiple smooth periodic components, the periodic components including at least one of hourly, daily, weekly, weekend, and weekday.

15. The system of claim 13 , wherein the periodicity tests further include a hypothesis test for periodic spikes in the received operating data and a first subset of sketches from the plurality of sketches of time series of prior operating data.

16. The system of claim 14 , wherein the periodicity tests further include a test for variance in the received operating data and a subset of sketches from the plurality of sketches of time series of prior operatin

Assignees

• Elasticsearch Bv

Inventors

• Veasey Thomas
• Dodson Stephen

Classifications

• G06Q10/06314

  Calendaring for a resource · CPC title

• G06Q10/06312

  Adjustment or analysis of established resource schedule, e.g. resource or task levelling, or dynamic rescheduling · CPC title

• G06Q10/04 Primary

  Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" (market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202) · CPC title

• G06Q10/06315

  Needs-based resource requirements planning or analysis · CPC title

• G06F16/252

  between a Database Management System and a front-end application · CPC title