Method and system for predicting regional short-term energy power by taking weather into consideration

Patent metadata

Field	Value
Publication number	US-12160104-B2
Application number	US-202017639682-A
Country	US
Kind code	B2
Filing date	Sep 2, 2020
Priority date	Sep 2, 2019
Publication date	Dec 3, 2024
Grant date	Dec 3, 2024

Abstract

A method and system for predicting regional short-term energy power by taking weather into consideration includes: obtaining meteorological data of all moments in a set time in the future through a network; extracting respectively, from a historical database according to the obtained meteorological data, historical weather station meteorological data, historical network API meteorological data, and historical measured power generation power data within a set time period that meet meteorological conditions corresponding to all the moments; obtaining historical total error data; obtaining real-time error meteorological data; obtaining total error meteorological data; combining the obtained meteorological data of all the moments in the set time in the future with total error meteorological data of all the moments to obtain predicted meteorological data; obtaining predicted power data according to the predicted meteorological data; and optimizing an energy generation plan of a system according to the obtained predicted power data.

First claim

What is claimed is:

1. A method for maintaining a stability of a power grid, wherein the power grid is connected with an energy power generation system comprising photovoltaic and wind power generation systems, the method comprising;
by a processor,
predicting regional short-term energy power by taking weather into consideration, comprising:
obtaining meteorological data of all moments in a set time in the future through a network;
extracting respectively, from a historical database according to the obtained meteorological data, historical weather station meteorological data, historical network API meteorological data, and historical measured power generation power data within a set time period that meet meteorological conditions corresponding to all the moments;
determining historical error data and weight coefficient of all the moments according to the extracted historical data, to further obtain historical total error data;
obtaining network real-time meteorological data and weather station real-time measured data respectively, to obtain real-time error meteorological data;
obtaining total error meteorological data according to the historical total error data and the real-time error meteorological data, specifically comprising:
storing the historical total error data into a one-dimensional array array_error_H, and storing the real-time error meteorological data into a one-dimensional array er;
selecting an error weight coefficient array M, the array M comprising weight coefficient of all the moments, multiplying the array array_error_H by the error weight coefficient array M to obtain a new array, and then adding a result of multiplying the array er by an array (1−M) to the new array to obtain a total error array array_error_ER;
combining the obtained meteorological data of all the moments in the set time in the future with total error meteorological data of all the moments to obtain predicted meteorological data; obtaining predicted power data according to the predicted meteorological data; and
adjusting a set value of the energy power of the energy power generation system connected in the power grid in the set time in the future to match with the obtained predicted power data, to reduce an impact of a fluctuation of the energy power of the energy power generation system to the power grid in the set time in the future to maintain the stability of the power grid.

2. The method for maintaining the stability of the power grid according to claim 1 , wherein the determining historical error data of all the moments according to the extracted historical data specifically comprises:
storing the extracted historical weather station meteorological data into a two-dimensional array array_avg_A;
storing the extracted historical network API meteorological data into a two-dimensional array array_fro_B; and
subtracting values of the two-dimensional array array_avg_A from values of the two-dimensional array array_fro_B to obtain a two-dimensional historical error array array_error_C of all the moments.

3. The method for maintaining the stability of the power grid according to claim 1 , wherein the determining weight coefficients of all the moments according to the extracted historical data specifically comprises:
storing the extracted historical measured power generation data of all the moments into a two-dimensional array array_avg_F;
calculating power generation data of all the moments according to the extracted historical weather station meteorological data, and storing the power generation data into a two-dimensional array array_pro_G; and
comparing the two-dimensional array array_avg_F with the two-dimensional array array_pro_G to obtain a power error, and selecting, according to the power error, n weight coefficients 0<=Dn<=1 to make D1+D2+ . . . +Dn=1.

4. A terminal device, comprising:
a processor configured to implement instructions to execute the method for maintaining the stability of the power grid according to claim 1 ; and
a computer-readable storage medium configured to store a plurality of instructions, including the instructions to execute the method for maintaining the stability of the power grid according to claim 1 .

5. A computer-readable storage medium, storing a plurality of instructions, wherein the plurality of instructions include the instructions to execute the method for maintaining the stability of the power grid according to claim 1 .

Assignees

• Univ Shandong

Inventors

• Sun Bo
• Zhang Chenghui
• Ma Deyin

Classifications

• H02J2105/54

  according to a non-electrical condition, e.g. temperature · CPC title

• H02J2103/35

  Grid-level management of power transmission or distribution systems, e.g. load flow analysis or active network management · CPC title

• H02J2103/30

  Simulating, planning, modelling, reliability check or computer assisted design [CAD] of electric power networks · CPC title

• H02J3/004 Primary

  Generation forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future energy generation · CPC title

• G06Q50/06

  Energy or water supply · CPC title