Method and system for global epidemic disease outbreak prediction
US-10366791-B1 · Jul 30, 2019 · US
US11933619B2 · US · B2
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Publication number | US-11933619-B2 |
| Application number | US-202017114168-A |
| Country | US |
| Kind code | B2 |
| Filing date | Dec 7, 2020 |
| Priority date | Dec 7, 2020 |
| Publication date | Mar 19, 2024 |
| Grant date | Mar 19, 2024 |
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In an approach for recommending a safe path for people to navigate an environment, a processor generates a contact graph for a user in a group of users in an area, based on a pre-defined distance measurement between the user and another user in a same timestamp during a pre-defined time period. A processor builds a profile for the user based on the contact graph, the profile including a probability model corresponding to the contact graph to estimate an infection probability for the user. A processor calculates an initial route for the user from a first location to a second location in the area. A processor analyzes an infection risk for the user based on the profile and other users within a pre-defined distance to the user in the initial route. A processor updates the initial route based on the analysis to minimize the risk to be infected.
Opening claim text (preview).
What is claimed is: 1. A computer-implemented method comprising: generating, by one or more processors, a contact graph for a user in a group of users in an area, based on a pre-defined distance measurement between the user and another user in a same timestamp during a pre-defined time period; building, by one or more processors, a profile for the user based on the contact graph, the profile including a probability model corresponding to the contact graph to estimate an infection probability for the user; calculating, by one or more processors, an initial route for the user from a first location to a second location in the area; analyzing, by one or more processors, an infection risk for the user based on the profile and other users within a pre-defined distance to the user in the initial route; and updating, by one or more processors, the initial route based on the analysis to minimize the risk to be infected. 2. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein generating the contact graph comprises measuring a distance between the user and another user using a global positioning system. 3. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein building the profile comprises generating a dataset based on position data collected from a global positioning system and medical data available from the group of users. 4. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein calculating the initial route comprises using an algorithm to calculate and generate the shortest route as the initial route. 5. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein the probability model is a Markov network with a same structure based on the contact graph. 6. The computer-implemented method of claim 5 , wherein analyzing the infection risk of the user comprises using the Markov network to estimate the infection risk based on a pre-determined threshold. 7. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein analyzing the infection risk for the user comprises analyzing multiple routes within the area and identifying users who share zones with an infected user. 8. A computer program product comprising: one or more computer readable storage media, and program instructions collectively stored on the one or more computer readable storage media, the program instructions comprising: program instructions to generate a contact graph for a user in a group of users in an area, based on a pre-defined distance measurement between the user and another user in a same timestamp during a pre-defined time period; program instructions to build a profile for the user based on the contact graph, the profile including a probability model corresponding to the contact graph to estimate an infection probability for the user; program instructions to calculate an initial route for the user from a first location to a second location in the area; program instructions to analyze an infection risk for the user based on the profile and other users within a pre-defined distance to the user in the initial route; and program instructions to update the initial route based on the analysis to minimize the risk to be infected. 9. The computer program product of claim 8 , wherein program instructions to generate the contact graph comprise program instructions to measure a distance between the user and another user using a global positioning system. 10. The computer program product of claim 8 , wherein program instructions to build the profile comprise program instructions to generate a dataset based on position data collected from a global positioning system and medical data available from the group of users. 11. The computer program product of claim 8 , wherein program instructions to calculate the initial route comprise program instructions to use an algorithm to calculate and generate the shortest route as the initial route. 12. The computer program product of claim 8 , wherein the probability model is a Markov network with a same structure based on the contact graph. 13. The computer program product of claim 12 , wherein program instructions to analyze the infection risk of the user comprise program instructions to use the Markov network to estimate the infection risk based on a pre-determined threshold. 14. The computer program product of claim 8 , wherein program instructions to analyze the infection risk for the user comprise program instructions to analyze multiple routes within the area and identifying users who share zones with an infected user. 15. A computer system comprising: one or more computer processors, one or more computer readable storage media, and program instructions stored on the one or more computer readable storage media for execution by at least one of the one or more computer processors, the program instructions comprising: program instructions to generate a contact graph for a user in a group of users in an area, based on a pre-defined distance measurement between the user and another user in a same timestamp during a pre-defined time period; program instructions to build a profile for the user based on the contact graph, the profile including a probability model corresponding to the contact graph to estimate an infection probability for the user; program instructions to calculate an initial route for the user from a first location to a second location in the area; program instructions to analyze an infection risk for the user based on the profile and other users within a pre-defined distance to the user in the initial route; and program instructions to update the initial route based on the analysis to minimize the risk to be infected. 16. The computer system of claim 15 , wherein program instructions to generate the contact graph comprise program instructions to measure a distance between the user and another user using a global positioning system. 17. The computer system of claim 15 , wherein program instructions to build the profile comprise program instructions to generate a dataset based on position data collected from a global positioning system and medical data available from the group of users. 18. The computer system of claim 15 , wherein program instructions to calculate the initial route comprise program instructions to use an algorithm to calculate and generate the shortest route as the initial route. 19. The computer system of claim 15 , wherein the probability model is a Markov network with a same structure based on the contact graph. 20. The computer system of claim 15 , wherein program instructions to analyze the infection risk for the user comprise program instructions to analyze multiple routes within the area and identifying users who share zones with an infected user.
Preferred or disfavoured areas, e.g. dangerous zones, toll or emission zones, intersections, manoeuvre types or segments such as motorways, toll roads or ferries · CPC title
Global tracking of patients, e.g. by using GPS · CPC title
Satellite radio beacon positioning systems transmitting time-stamped messages, e.g. GPS [Global Positioning System], GLONASS [Global Orbiting Navigation Satellite System] or GALILEO · CPC title
initial alignment, calibration or starting-up of inertial devices · CPC title
for remote operation · CPC title
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