Conditional motion predictions

Patent metadata

Field	Value
Publication number	US-11731653-B2
Application number	US-202117371553-A
Country	US
Kind code	B2
Filing date	Jul 9, 2021
Priority date	Aug 26, 2020
Publication date	Aug 22, 2023
Grant date	Aug 22, 2023

Abstract

Among other things, techniques are described for conditional motion predictions. The techniques include generating, by a planning circuit, a set of candidate trajectories for a vehicle based on possible macro actions by the vehicle, predicting, by the planning circuit and for at least some trajectories in the set of candidate trajectories, a response by a target vehicle to the respective trajectory and a probability of the response by the target vehicle, selecting, by the planning circuit, a trajectory from the set of candidate trajectories based at least in part on the response by the target vehicle to the trajectory, the probability of the response by the target vehicle, and characteristics of the trajectory, and operating, by a control circuit, the vehicle based on the selected trajectory.

First claim

What is claimed is:

1. A vehicle, comprising:
a computer-readable media storing computer-executable instructions; and
a processor communicatively coupled to the computer-readable media, the processor configured to execute the computer executable instructions to perform operations comprising:
generating a set of candidate trajectories for the vehicle based on possible macro actions by the vehicle;
for at least some trajectories in the set of candidate trajectories,
predicting a response by a target vehicle to a respective trajectory and a probability of the response by the target vehicle; and
determining a score for the respective trajectory based on a weighted combination of:
(i) the predicted response by the target vehicle to the respective trajectory and the probability of the response by the target vehicle, and
(ii) at least one heuristic calculated for the respective trajectory, wherein calculating the at least one heuristic for the respective trajectory comprises determining a distance traveled for the respective trajectory, and wherein a higher score is assigned to a trajectory having a greater distance traveled relative to distances of other trajectories in the set of candidate trajectories;

selecting a trajectory from the set of candidate trajectories based at least in part on the score; and
operating the vehicle based on the selected trajectory.

2. The vehicle of claim 1 , further comprising:
identifying a maneuver to be performed by the vehicle on a road network; and
generating the set of candidate trajectories for performing the maneuver on the road network.

3. The vehicle of claim 2 , wherein the maneuver comprises at least one of a merge, a lane change, or a turn.

4. The vehicle of claim 1 , wherein the possible macro actions comprise a lane follow action having a parameterized velocity.

5. The vehicle of claim 1 , wherein the possible macro actions comprise a change lane action having a parameterized lane change time.

6. The vehicle of claim 1 , wherein predicting the response of the target vehicle to the trajectory comprises predicting a trajectory of the target vehicle conditioned on the trajectory of the vehicle.

7. The vehicle of claim 1 , wherein determining the score comprises identifying a magnitude of acceleration by the vehicle for the trajectory or by the target vehicle in response to the trajectory.

8. The vehicle of claim 1 , wherein determining the score comprises identifying a collision or near-collision by the vehicle for the trajectory or by the target vehicle in response to the trajectory.

9. The vehicle of claim 1 , wherein determining the score comprises determining a time-to-collision or distance-to-collision for the vehicle for the trajectory or for the target vehicle in response to the trajectory.

10. The vehicle of claim 1 , wherein determining the score comprises determining a distance traveled by the vehicle for the trajectory or by the target vehicle in response to the trajectory.

11. The vehicle of claim 1 , wherein the target vehicle comprises a first target vehicle, the processor configured to execute the computer executable instructions to perform operations further comprising:
for each trajectory in the set of candidate trajectories, predicting a response by a second target vehicle to the trajectory and a probability of the response by the second target vehicle, wherein the second target vehicle is different than the first target vehicle.

12. The vehicle of claim 11 , wherein the processor is configured to execute the computer executable instructions to perform operations further comprising:
selecting the trajectory from the set of candidate trajectories based at least in part on the response by the first target vehicle to the trajectory, the probability of the response by the first target vehicle, the response by the second target vehicle to the trajectory, the probability of the response by the second target vehicle, and characteristics of the trajectory.

13. A method comprising:
generating, by at least one processor, a set of candidate trajectories for a vehicle based on possible macro actions by the vehicle;
for at least some trajectories in the set of candidate trajectories,
predicting, by the at least one processor, a response by a target vehicle to a respective trajectory and a probability of the response by the target vehicle; and
determining a score for the respective trajectory based on a weighted combination of:
(i) the predicted response by the target vehicle to the respective trajectory and the probability of the response by the target vehicle, and
(ii) at least one heuristic calculated for the respective trajectory, wherein calculating the at least one heuristic for the respective trajectory comprises determining a distance traveled for the respective trajectory, and wherein a higher score is assigned to a trajectory having a greater distance traveled relative to distances of other trajectories in the set of candidate trajectories;

selecting, by the at least one processor, a trajectory from the set of candidate trajectories based at least in part on the score; and
operating, by the at least one processor, the vehicle based on the selected trajectory.

14. The method of claim 13 , further comprising:
identifying a maneuver to be performed by the vehicle on a road network; and
generating the set of candidate trajectories for performing the maneuver on the road network.

15. The method of claim 14 , wherein the maneuver comprises at least one of a merge, a lane change, or a turn.

16. The method of claim 13 , wherein the possible macro actions comprise at least one of a lane follow action having a parameterized velocity or a change lane action having a parameterized lane change time.

17. The method of claim 13 , wherein predicting the response of the target vehicle to the trajectory comprises predicting a trajectory of the target vehicle conditioned on the trajectory of the vehicle.

18. The method of claim 13 , wherein determining the score comprises:
identifying at least one of: a magnitude of acceleration by the vehicle for the trajectory or by the target vehicle in response to the trajectory, a collision or near-collision by the vehicle for the trajectory or by the target vehicle in response to the trajectory, a time-to-collision or distance-to-collision for the vehicle for the trajectory or for the target vehicle in response to the trajectory, or a distance traveled by the vehicle for the trajectory or by the target vehicle in response to the trajectory; and
determining the score based on the identification of the at least one of: the magnitude of acceleration by the vehicle for the trajectory or by the target vehicle in response to the trajectory, the collision or near-collision by the vehicle for the trajectory or by the target vehicle in response to the trajectory, the time-to-collision or distance-to-collision for the vehicle for the trajectory or for the target vehicle in response to the trajectory, or the distance traveled by the vehicle for the trajectory or by the target vehicle in response to the trajectory.

19. The method of claim 13 , wherein the target vehicle comprises a first target vehicle, the method further comprising:
for each trajectory in the set of candidate trajectories, predicting a response by a second target vehicle to the trajectory and a probability of the response by the second target vehicle, wherein the second target vehicle is different than the first target vehicle.

20. The method of claim 19

Assignees

• Motional Ad Llc

Inventors

• Wolff Eric
• Katt Sammie
• Cserna Bence

Classifications

• B60W2554/4045

  Intention, e.g. lane change or imminent movement · CPC title

• B60W40/10

  related to vehicle motion · CPC title

• B60W60/0011 Primary

  involving control alternatives for a single driving scenario, e.g. planning several paths to avoid obstacles · CPC title

• B60W60/0027 Primary

  using trajectory prediction for other traffic participants · CPC title

• B60W30/095

  Predicting travel path or likelihood of collision · CPC title