Methods and apparatus to determine synthetic respondent level data using constrained Markov chains

Patent metadata

Field	Value
Publication number	US-11716509-B2
Application number	US-202117465567-A
Country	US
Kind code	B2
Filing date	Sep 2, 2021
Priority date	Jun 27, 2017
Publication date	Aug 1, 2023
Grant date	Aug 1, 2023

Abstract

Methods, apparatus, systems, and articles of manufacture are disclosed to generate synthetic respondent level data. Example apparatus disclosed herein include means for generating a synthetic panel corresponding to a duration of time, the means for generating the synthetic panel to: generate a transition matrix corresponding to a first sub-duration of the duration of time and a second sub-duration of the duration of time; generate, based on the transition matrix, a plurality of synthetic panelists and associated viewing data; remove first ones of the synthetic panelists associated with one or more weights that do not satisfy a threshold to generate the synthetic panel corresponding to the duration of time, the synthetic panel representative of audiences of media presented by a plurality of media devices during the duration of time; and generate synthetic respondent level data based on the viewing data associated with remaining second ones of the synthetic panelists.

First claim

What is claimed is:

1. An apparatus comprising:
means for generating a synthetic panel corresponding to a duration of time, the means for generating the synthetic panel to:
generate a transition matrix corresponding to a first sub-duration of the duration of time and a second sub-duration of the duration of time, the second sub-duration different than the first sub-duration, the transition matrix to be based on a seed panel;
generate, based on the transition matrix, a plurality of synthetic panelists and associated viewing data, the viewing data to correspond to the first and second sub-durations of time;
remove first ones of the synthetic panelists associated with one or more weights that do not satisfy a threshold to generate the synthetic panel corresponding to the duration of time, the synthetic panel representative of audiences of media presented by a plurality of media devices during the duration of time; and
generate synthetic respondent level data based on the viewing data associated with remaining second ones of the synthetic panelists in the synthetic panel; and

means for generating an output file based on the synthetic respondent level data.

2. The apparatus of claim 1 , wherein the transition matrix corresponds to a probability that a seed panelist will change stations during a sub-duration.

3. The apparatus of claim 1 , wherein the means for generating the synthetic panel is to reweight the synthetic panelists after the first ones of the synthetic panelists have been removed.

4. The apparatus of claim 1 , wherein the synthetic respondent level data includes time records for viewing sessions by the remaining second ones of the synthetic panelists and corresponding demographic data.

5. The apparatus of claim 1 , wherein the output file includes the synthetic respondent level data.

6. An apparatus comprising:
at least one memory;
instructions in the apparatus; and
processor circuitry to execute the instructions to at least:
generate a transition matrix corresponding to a first sub-duration of a duration of time and a second sub-duration of the duration of time, the second sub-duration different than the first sub-duration, the transition matrix to be based on a seed panel;
generate, based on the transition matrix, a plurality of synthetic panelists and associated viewing data, the viewing data to correspond to the first and second sub-durations of time;
remove first ones of the synthetic panelists associated with one or more weights that do not satisfy a threshold to generate a synthetic panel corresponding to the duration of time, the synthetic panel representative of audiences of media presented by a plurality of media devices during the duration of time; and
generate synthetic respondent level data based on the viewing data associated with remaining second ones of the synthetic panelists in the synthetic panel; and
generate an output file based on the synthetic respondent level data.

7. The apparatus of claim 6 , wherein the transition matrix corresponds to a probability that a seed panelist will change stations during a sub-duration.

8. The apparatus of claim 6 , wherein the processor circuitry to reweight the synthetic panelists after the first ones of the synthetic panelists have been removed.

9. The apparatus of claim 6 , wherein the synthetic respondent level data includes time records for viewing sessions by the remaining second ones of the synthetic panelists and corresponding demographic data.

10. The apparatus of claim 6 , wherein the output file includes the synthetic respondent level data.

11. An apparatus comprising:
means for generating synthetic panels, the means for generating the synthetic panels to generate a first synthetic panel corresponding to a first duration of time and a second synthetic panel corresponding to a second duration of time, the first synthetic panel generated based on (a) a seed panel and (b) first duration constraints based on return path data reported by a plurality of media devices, the second synthetic panel generated based on (a) the seed panel and (b) second duration constraints based on the return path data reported by the plurality of media devices, the first synthetic panel representative of audiences of media presented by the plurality of media devices during the first duration of time, the second synthetic panel representative of audiences of media presented by the plurality of media devices during the second duration of time;
means for generating synthetic respondent level data, the means for generating the synthetic respondent level data to link first synthetic panelists in the first synthetic panel to second synthetic panelists in the second synthetic panel to generate synthetic respondent level data corresponding to a third duration of time; and
means for generating an output file based on the synthetic responded level data.

12. The apparatus of claim 11 , wherein the means for generating synthetic panels is to generate the first synthetic panel by:
generating a transition matrix corresponding to the first and second durations of time, the transition matrix generated based on the seed panel;
generating viewing data for the first synthetic panelists, the viewing data generated based on the transition matrix;
determining weights to apply to the viewing data for the first synthetic panelists to satisfy the first duration constraints; and
removing one or more of the first synthetic panelists whose weights do not satisfy a threshold.

13. The apparatus of claim 12 , wherein the transition matrix corresponds to a probability that a seed panelist will change stations during a quarter hour.

14. The apparatus of claim 12 , wherein remaining ones of the first synthetic panelists are reweighted after the one or more of the first synthetic panelists have been removed.

15. The apparatus of claim 12 , wherein the first duration constraints include reaches for the first duration of time corresponding to aggregate reach data determined based on the return path data.

16. The apparatus of claim 15 , wherein the means for generating the synthetic responded level data is to generate the synthetic responded level data corresponding to the third duration of time by:
determining a duration constraint error corresponding to a comparison of (i) a first reach for the second duration of time determined by combining viewing data according to synthetic panelists links between the first and second synthetic panelists, and (ii) a second reach for the second duration of time corresponding to aggregate reach data determined based on the return path data; and
when the duration constraint error does not satisfy an error threshold, swapping the synthetic panelist links to reduce the duration constraint error.

17. The apparatus of claim 16 , wherein the means for generating the synthetic responded level data is to swap the synthetic panelist links by:
identifying the duration constraint error for permutations of the synthetic panelist links between the first synthetic panel and the second synthetic panel; and
swapping the synthetic panelist links based on a highest reduction of the duration constraint error.

18. The apparatus of claim 11 , wherein the first and second synthetic panelists are linked according to a demographic.

19. The apparatus of claim 11 , wherein the first duration of time corresponds to a first day, the second duration of time corresponds to a second day, and the third duration of time corresponds to a duration of time including the first and second days.

Assignees

• Nielsen Co Us Llc

Inventors

• Sheppard Michael
• Sullivan Jonathan
• Morgan Michael D
• Shankar Balachander
• Murphy Edward
• Downing Frank

Classifications

• H04N21/44213 Primary

  Monitoring of end-user related data (arrangements for monitoring the users' behaviour or opinions in broadcast systems H04H60/33) · CPC title

• H04H60/31

  Arrangements for monitoring the use made of the broadcast services · CPC title

• H04N21/25883

  being end-user demographical data, e.g. age, family status or address (arrangements for identifying locations of users in broadcast systems H04H60/52) · CPC title

• H04N21/262

  Content or additional data distribution scheduling, e.g. sending additional data at off-peak times, updating software modules, calculating the carousel transmission frequency, delaying a video stream transmission, generating play-lists {(scheduling strategies for dispatcher in multiprogramming arrangements G06F9/4881; arrangements for scheduling broadcast services or broadcast-related services H04H60/06; flow control in packet networks H04L47/10; establishing a time schedule or organising the servicing of application requests H04L67/62)} · CPC title

• H04N21/458

  Scheduling content for creating a personalised stream, e.g. by combining a locally stored advertisement with an incoming stream; Updating operations, e.g. for OS modules {; time-related management operations (arrangements for replacing or switching information during the broadcast or during the distribution H04H20/10)} · CPC title