Methods and apparatus to estimate population reach from different marginal rating unions

Patent metadata

Field	Value
Publication number	US-11323772-B2
Application number	US-202016893129-A
Country	US
Kind code	B2
Filing date	Jun 4, 2020
Priority date	Feb 28, 2017
Publication date	May 3, 2022
Grant date	May 3, 2022

Abstract

Example methods, apparatus, systems, and articles of manufacture are disclosed to estimate population reach for different unions based on marginal ratings. An example apparatus includes a reach determiner to determine a population reach estimate of a union of time intervals for which media ratings data is available, the population reach estimate based on a pseudo universe estimate of a population audience corresponding to the union of the time intervals; a pseudo universe determiner to determine a pseudo universe estimate of a recorded audience corresponding to the union of the time intervals; determine the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience based on the pseudo universe estimate of the recorded audience; and iteratively update the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience to reduce an error; and a consistency checker to adjust the population reach estimate, the reach determiner to output the population reach estimate of the union.

First claim

What is claimed is:

1. An apparatus comprising:
at least one memory;
instructions in the apparatus; and
processor circuitry to execute the instruction to at least:
determine a population reach estimate of a union of time intervals for which media ratings data is available, the population reach estimate based on a pseudo universe estimate of a population audience corresponding to the union of the time intervals;
determine a pseudo universe estimate of a recorded audience corresponding to the union of the time intervals;
determine the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience based on the pseudo universe estimate of the recorded audience;
iteratively update the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience to reduce an error of the population reach estimate;
adjust the population reach estimate when the population reach estimate is outside a range defined by a lower bound and an upper bound; and
output the population reach estimate of the union when the error of the population reach estimate satisfies a threshold.

2. The apparatus of claim 1 , wherein the lower bound is a second population reach estimate corresponding to a subset of the union of the time intervals.

3. The apparatus of claim 1 , wherein the upper bound is at least one of (A) a sum of reach estimates for a plurality of subsets of the union or (B) a universe estimate of users that potentially could be exposed to media corresponding to the media ratings data.

4. The apparatus of claim 1 , wherein the processor circuitry is to adjust the population reach estimate of the union to fit within the range.

5. The apparatus of claim 4 , wherein the union is a first union, the lower bound is a first lower bound, the upper bound is a first upper bound, the range is a first range, the population reach estimate is a first population reach estimate, and when the processor circuitry adjusts the population reach estimate of the first union, at least one of a second lower bound or a second upper bound of a second population reach estimate of a second union of the time intervals is adjusted, the processor circuitry to adjust the first population reach estimate of the first union to ensure that the second population reach estimate of the second union of the time intervals is within a second range defined by the second lower bound and the second upper bound.

6. The apparatus of claim 1 , wherein the pseudo universe estimate of the recorded audience corresponds to a recorded reach for subsets of the union of the time intervals, and the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience corresponds to a population reach for the subsets of the union of the time intervals.

7. The apparatus of claim 6 , wherein:
the pseudo universe estimate of the recorded audience corresponds to a first universe estimate that assures independency among recorded audience data for the subsets of the union of the time intervals; and
the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience corresponds to a second universe estimate that assures independency among population audience data for the subsets of the union of the time intervals.

8. The apparatus of claim 1 , wherein the error corresponds to a difference between (A) a first relationship based on the population reach estimate of the union of the time intervals and the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience of the union of the time intervals, and (B) a second relationship based on population reach estimates for subsets of the union of the time intervals and the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience of the union of the time intervals.

9. A non-transitory computer readable medium comprising instructions which, when executed cause one or more processors to at least:
determine a population reach estimate of a union of time intervals for which media ratings data is available, the population reach estimate based on a pseudo universe estimate of a population audience corresponding to the union of the time intervals;
determine a pseudo universe estimate of a recorded audience corresponding to the union of the time intervals;
determine the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience based on the pseudo universe estimate of the recorded audience;
iteratively adjust the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience to reduce an error of the population reach estimate;
adjust the population reach estimate when the population reach estimate is outside at least one of a lower bound and an upper bound; and
output the population reach estimate of the union when the error of the population reach estimate satisfies a threshold.

10. The computer readable medium of claim 9 , wherein the lower bound is a second population reach estimate corresponding to a subset of the union of the time intervals.

11. The computer readable medium of claim 9 , wherein the upper bound is at least one of (A) a sum of reach estimates for a plurality of subsets of the union or (B) a universe estimate of users that potentially could be exposed to media corresponding to the media ratings data.

12. The computer readable medium of claim 9 , wherein the instructions cause the one or more processors to adjust the population reach estimate of the union to be between the lower bound and the upper bound.

13. The computer readable medium of claim 12 , wherein the union is a first union, the lower bound is a first lower bound, the upper bound is a first upper bound, the population reach estimate is a first population reach estimate, and when the instructions cause the one or more processors to adjust the population reach estimate of the first union, at least one of a second lower bound or a second upper bound of a second population reach estimate of a second union of the time intervals is adjusted, the instructions to cause the one or more processors to adjust the first population reach estimate of the first union to ensure that the second population reach estimate of the second union of the time intervals is between the second lower bound and the second upper bound.

14. The computer readable medium of claim 9 , wherein the pseudo universe estimate of the recorded audience corresponds to a recorded reach for subsets of the union of the time intervals, and the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience corresponds to a population reach for the subsets of the union of the time intervals.

15. The computer readable medium of claim 14 , wherein:
the pseudo universe estimate of the recorded audience corresponds to a first universe estimate that assures independency among recorded audience data for the subsets of the union of the time intervals; and
the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience corresponds to a second universe estimate that assures independency among population audience data for the subsets of the union of the time intervals.

16. The computer readable medium of claim 9 , wherein the error corresponds to a difference between (A) a first relationship based on the population reach estimate of the union of the time intervals and the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience of the union of the time intervals, and (B) a second relationship based on population reach estimates for subsets of the union of the time intervals and the pseudo universe estimate of the population audience of the union of the time intervals.

17. An apparatus comprising:
means for determining a population reach estimate of a union of time intervals for which media ratings data is available, the population reach estimate based on a pseudo universe estimate of a population audience co

Assignees

• Nielsen Co Us Llc

Inventors

• Sheppard Michael
• Sullivan Jonathan
• Murphy Edward
• Morgan Michael
• Daemen Ludo

Classifications

• H04N21/25883

  being end-user demographical data, e.g. age, family status or address (arrangements for identifying locations of users in broadcast systems H04H60/52) · CPC title

• H04N21/44224 Primary

  Monitoring of user activity on external systems, e.g. Internet browsing · CPC title

• H04N21/4665

  involving classification methods, e.g. Decision trees · CPC title

• H04N21/44222 Primary

  Analytics of user selections, e.g. selection of programmes or purchase activity (monitoring of user selections in data processing systems G06F11/34; arrangements for monitoring the user's behaviour or opinions in broadcast systems H04H60/33) · CPC title

• G06Q30/0201 Primary

  Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data · CPC title