Central plant control system with building energy load estimation

Patent metadata

Field	Value
Publication number	US-11099532-B2
Application number	US-201916450701-A
Country	US
Kind code	B2
Filing date	Jun 24, 2019
Priority date	Dec 16, 2015
Publication date	Aug 24, 2021
Grant date	Aug 24, 2021

Abstract

Predictor variables that affect production or consumption of a resource are sampled at a plurality of times within a time period and aggregated to generate an aggregated value for each predictor variable over the time period. A model is generated which estimates the production or consumption in terms of the predictor variables. A regression process is performed to generate values for a plurality of regression coefficients in the model based on a cumulative production or consumption of the resource for the time period and the aggregated values. The sampled values of the predictor variables are then applied as inputs to the model to estimate productions or consumptions of the resource at each of the plurality of times. The estimated productions or consumptions may be used as inputs to a controller that operates equipment.

First claim

What is claimed is:

1. A system for operating equipment to control a production or consumption of a resource, the system comprising:
a processing circuit configured to:
identify a predicted cumulative production or consumption of a resource for a future time period and sample values of a plurality of predictor variables that affect the production or consumption of the resource at a plurality of times within the future time period;
aggregate the values of the plurality of predictor variables to generate an aggregated value for each of the plurality of predictor variables over the future time period;
generate a model that estimates the production or consumption in terms of the predictor variables based on the cumulative production or consumption of the resource and the aggregated values for each of the plurality of predictor variables;
input, to the model, the values of the plurality of predictor variables sampled at each of the plurality of times within the future time period to estimate a production or consumption of the resource at each of the plurality of times within the future time period such that the predicted cumulative production or consumption of the resource for the future time period is disaggregated into a plurality of estimated productions or consumptions of the resource within the future time period; and

a controller configured to operate equipment using the estimated productions or consumptions of the resource at each of the plurality of times.

2. The system of claim 1 , wherein the processing circuit is further configured to:
determine a number of the plurality of times that occur within the future time period; and
sum each of the values of the plurality of predictor variables sampled during the number of the plurality of times to aggregate the plurality of predictor variable values.

3. The system of claim 1 , wherein the processing circuit is further configured to select the predictor variables based on an effect of each of the predictor variables on the production or consumption of the resource.

4. The system of claim 1 , wherein the processing circuit is further configured to generate a regression model based on the predicted cumulative productions or consumptions of the resource identified.

5. The system of claim 1 , wherein the production or consumption of the resource is a heating load.

6. The system of claim 5 , wherein the time period is one month.

7. The system of claim 1 , wherein the production or consumption of the resource is a cooling load.

8. The system of claim 7 , wherein the future time period is one day.

9. A method for operating equipment to control a production or consumption of a resource, the method comprising:
identifying a predicted cumulative production or consumption of a resource for a future time period and sampling values of a plurality of predictor variables that affect the production or consumption of the resource at a plurality of times within the future time period;
aggregating the values of the plurality of predictor variables to generate an aggregated value for each of the plurality of predictor variables over the future time period;
generating a model that estimates the production or consumption in terms of the predictor variables based on the cumulative production or consumption of the resource and the aggregated values for each of the plurality of predictor variables;
inputting, to the model, the values of the plurality of predictor variables sampled at each of the plurality of times within the future time period to estimate a production or consumption of the resource at each of the plurality of times within the future time period such that the predicted cumulative production or consumption of the resource for the future time period is disaggregated into a plurality of estimated productions or consumptions of the resource within the future time period; and
operating equipment using the estimated productions or consumptions of the resource at each of the plurality of times.

10. The method of claim 9 , wherein aggregating the values of the plurality of predictor variables comprises:
determining a number of the plurality of times that occur within the future time period; and
summing each of the values of the plurality of predictor variables sampled during the number of the plurality of times.

11. The method of claim 9 , further comprising selecting the predictor variables based on an effect of each of the predictor variables on the productions or consumptions of the resource.

12. The method of claim 9 , further comprising performing a regression process to generate a model based on the predicted cumulative productions or consumptions of the resource identified.

13. The method of claim 9 , wherein the production or consumption of the resource is a heating load.

14. The method of claim 13 , wherein the future time period is one month.

15. The method of claim 9 , wherein the production or consumption of the resource is a cooling load.

16. The method of claim 15 , wherein the future time period is one day.

17. A processing circuit for operating equipment to control a production or consumption of a resource, the processing circuit configured to:
identify a predicted cumulative production or consumption of a resource for a future time period and sample values of a plurality of predictor variables that affect the production or consumption of the resource at a plurality of times within the future time period;
aggregate the values of the plurality of predictor variables to generate an aggregated value for each of the plurality of predictor variables over the future time period;
generate a model that estimates the production or consumption in terms of the predictor variables based on the cumulative production or consumption of the resource and the aggregated values for each of the plurality of predictor variables;
input, to the model, the values of the plurality of predictor variables sampled at each of the plurality of times within the future time period to estimate a production or consumption of the resource at each of the plurality of times within the future time period such that the predicted cumulative production or consumption of the resource for the future time period is disaggregated into a plurality of estimated productions or consumptions of the resource within the future time period; and
operate equipment using the estimated productions or consumptions of the resource at each of the plurality of times.

18. The processing circuit of claim 17 , wherein the processing circuit is further configured to:
determine a number of the plurality of times that occur within the future time period; and
sum each of the values of the plurality of predictor variables sampled during the number of the plurality of times to aggregate the plurality of predictor variable values.

19. The processing circuit of claim 17 , wherein the processing circuit is further configured to select the predictor variables based on an effect of each of the predictor variables on the productions or consumptions of the resource.

20. The processing circuit of claim 17 , wherein the processing circuit is further configured to generate a regression model based on the predicted cumulative productions or consumptions of the resource identified.

Assignees

• Johnson Controls Tech Co
• Johnson Controls Tyco IP Holdings LLP

Inventors

• Vitullo Steven R
• Willmott Graeme

Classifications

• H02J2103/30

  Simulating, planning, modelling, reliability check or computer assisted design [CAD] of electric power networks · CPC title

• H02J2105/12

  supplying households or buildings · CPC title

• H02J3/00

  Circuit arrangements for AC mains or AC distribution networks · CPC title

• Y02B90/20

  Smart grids as enabling technology in buildings sector (smart grids supporting the management or operation of end-user stationary applications in general, or like technologies with no associated climate change mitigation effect Y04S20/00) · CPC title

• H02J3/003

  Load forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future load demand · CPC title