Attribution of multi-channel communications

Patent metadata

Field	Value
Publication number	US-10447647-B1
Application number	US-201615345274-A
Country	US
Kind code	B1
Filing date	Nov 7, 2016
Priority date	Nov 7, 2016
Publication date	Oct 15, 2019
Grant date	Oct 15, 2019

Abstract

Systems and methods are described for attributing credit to individual channels for messages delivered via multi-channel communications. A message may be delivered to a recipient via multiple delivery channels, and the recipient may engage in a conversion event or activity associated with receipt of the message. Each delivery of the message may partially contribute to causing the conversion event, and the incremental contribution of each delivery may be determined. A probability of conversion may be determined based on past message deliveries involving the same or similar messages, recipients, and channels. An impressions path may be generated based on the past message deliveries, and subpaths of the impressions path may be used to isolate the contribution of individual message impressions.

First claim

What is claimed is:

1. A computer-implemented method comprising:
as implemented by a computing device configured with specific executable instructions,
receiving an indication of a first conversion event associated with a first recipient;
identifying a first message associated with the first conversion event;
generating a first impression path, the first impression path comprising a first sequence of impressions, wherein each impression within the first sequence of impressions corresponds to a delivery of the first message to the first recipient via a respective channel at a respective time;
obtaining a plurality of conversion event indications, each of the plurality of conversion event indications associating a respective conversion event with a respective recipient, the respective conversion events forming a plurality of conversion events;
obtaining a plurality of impression paths, wherein at least a portion of individual impression paths in the plurality of impression paths are associated with respective individual conversion events in the plurality of conversion events;
determining, based at least in part on the plurality of conversion event indications and the plurality of impression paths, a path probability, wherein the path probability corresponds to a probability of conversion for recipients receiving the first sequence of impressions;
generating, from the first impression path, a plurality of subpaths, wherein each subpath within the plurality of subpaths omits a different impression from the first impression path;
determining, based at least in part on the plurality of conversion event indications and the plurality of impression paths, a subpath probability for each subpath within the plurality of subpaths, wherein the subpath probability for each subpath corresponds to a probability of conversion for recipients receiving impressions in the subpath;
attributing, based at least in part on the path probability and the subpath probability for each subpath within the plurality of subpaths, an incremental probability to each impression within the first sequence of impressions;
obtaining a second impression path, the second impression path comprising a second sequence of impressions, wherein each impression within the second sequence of impressions corresponds to a delivery of a second message to the first recipient via a respective channel at a respective time, and wherein the second message differs from the first message;
determining, based at least in part on the incremental probability attributed to each impression within the first sequence of impressions and the subpath probability for each subpath within the plurality of subpaths, a probability of first recipient conversion for each impression path of a plurality of updated impression paths, wherein each impression path of the plurality of updated impression paths adds a different delivery channel to the second impression path;
selecting a delivery channel corresponding to the updated impression path having a highest probability of first recipient conversion from among the plurality of updated impression paths; and
causing delivery of the second message to the first recipient via the delivery channel.

2. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein the first conversion event comprises the first recipient performing an action, the action comprising at least one of: performing an activity associated with the first message, utilizing a product or service associated with the first message, acquiring a product or service associated with the first message, or responding to the first message.

3. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein attributing the incremental probability to each impression within the first sequence of impressions comprises:
for each impression within the first sequence of impressions,
determining a delta between the path probability and the subpath probability of the subpath that omits the impression;
determining a probability that corresponds to the delta as the incremental probability; and
attributing the incremental probability to the impression.

4. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein determining the probability of first recipient conversion for each delivery channel comprises:
identifying, from the first sequence of impressions, an impression that corresponds to the delivery channel; and
identifying the incremental probability attributed to the impression as the probability of first recipient conversion for the delivery channel.

5. A system comprising:
a profile data store configured to store message profiles;
an impression path data store configured to store impression paths;
a conversion event data store configured to store conversion events; and
a hardware processor in communication with the profile data store, the impression path data store, and the conversion event data store, the hardware processor configured to execute specific computer-executable instructions to at least:
receive, from a first computing device, an indication of a conversion event, wherein the conversion event is associated with a first message and a first recipient of the first message;
obtain, from the profile data store, a first message profile corresponding to the first message;
obtain, from the impression path data store, a plurality of impression paths including a first impression path associated with the first message and the first recipient, the first impression path comprising a first sequence of impressions each occurring at a respective time;
obtain, from the conversion event data store, a plurality of conversion event indicators;
determine, based at least in part upon the first message profile, the first impression path, the plurality of impression paths, and the plurality of conversion event indicators, a path probability of conversion corresponding to the conversion event and the first impression path;
generate, based at least in part on the impression path, a plurality of subpaths, wherein each subpath within the plurality of subpaths omits a different impression from the first impression path;
determine, for each subpath within the plurality of subpaths, a subpath probability of conversion based at least in part upon the first message profile, the subpath, the plurality of impression paths, and the plurality of conversion event indicators;
for each impression in the first sequence of impressions, determine an incremental probability of conversion for the impression based at least in part on the subpath probability of conversion for the subpath that omits the impression;
identify a second impression path of the plurality of impression paths, the second impression path associated with a second message and the first recipient, the second message differing from the first message, the second impression path comprising a second sequence of impressions each occurring at a respective time;
identify, based at least in part on the incremental probability of conversion for each impression in the first sequence of impressions and the subpath probability of conversion for each subpath within the plurality of subpaths, an impression to add to the second impression path; and
transmit, to the first computing device, information identifying the impression to add to the second impression path.

6. The system of claim 5 , wherein the profile data store is further configured to store recipient profiles.

7. The system of claim 6 , wherein the processor is further configured to obtain a first recipient profile for the first recipient, and wherein each subpath probability of conversion is determined based at least in part on the first recipient profile.

8. The system of claim 5 , wherein an impression within the first sequence of impre

Assignees

• Amazon Tech Inc

Inventors

• Ranjan Roopesh
• Gathright Graton Marshal Randal
• Mishra Pragyana K

Classifications

• H04L69/14 Primary

  Multichannel or multilink protocols · CPC title

• H04L67/306

  User profiles · CPC title

• H04L51/36 Primary

  Electricity · mapped topic

• H04L67/63

  Routing a service request depending on the request content or context · CPC title

• H04L51/56 Primary

  Unified messaging, e.g. interactions between e-mail, instant messaging or converged IP messaging [CPM] · CPC title