Predicting pollution formation on insulator structures of power grids

Patent metadata

Field	Value
Publication number	US-10360538-B2
Application number	US-201514601887-A
Country	US
Kind code	B2
Filing date	Jan 21, 2015
Priority date	Jan 28, 2014
Publication date	Jul 23, 2019
Grant date	Jul 23, 2019

Abstract

A method and a device for predicting insulator pollution grade includes acquiring prediction data affecting the insulator pollution grade; acquiring current pollution status of the insulator; predicting the insulator pollution grade based on the prediction data, the current pollution status and an insulator pollution grade calculating model, wherein the insulator pollution grade calculating model at least comprises an initial pollution status variable of the insulator, and a pollutant accumulation prediction and a pollutant reduction prediction based on the initial pollution status variable, at least one of the accumulation prediction and the reduction prediction being associated with the prediction data, and the initial pollution status variable being associated with the current pollution status.

First claim

What is claimed is:

1. A method for predicting insulator pollution grade, comprising:
acquiring, by a processor, prediction data affecting the insulator pollution grade;
acquiring, by the processor, current pollution status of the insulator;
predicting, by the processor, the insulator pollution grade based on the prediction data, the current pollution status and an insulator pollution grade calculating model, wherein the insulator pollution grade calculating model at least comprises an initial pollution status variable of the insulator, and a pollutant accumulation prediction and a pollutant reduction prediction based on the initial pollution status variable, wherein the pollutant accumulation prediction is at least associated with air density, air speed and humidity contained in the prediction data, and
wherein the pollutant accumulation prediction is represented by equation ∫ t1 t2 ρDV·e −r 2 +RH ·dt, in which D represents average sea salt concentration in the area which the insulator is located in, p represents air density, V represents air speed, r represents the vertical distance from the insulator to coastline, RH represents relative humidity of the air, t 1 represents the time corresponding to the current pollution status of the insulator; and t 2 represents a moment in future;
at least one of the accumulation prediction and the reduction prediction being associated with the prediction data, and the initial pollution status variable being associated with the current pollution status;
determining the probability that pollution flashover occurs on the insulator based on the predicted insulator pollution grade and an insulator pollution flashover model, wherein the pollution flashover model represents a relationship between the insulator pollution grade and pollution flashover occurrence;
generating a visual presentation of the current pollution status of the insulator;
generating a disaster warning, wherein classification of the disaster warning is based at least in part on the pollutant accumulation prediction; and
adjusting a routing for an inspection and cleaning plan for the insulator based on the current pollution status of the insulator.

2. The method according to claim 1 , wherein the pollutant reduction prediction is at least associated with rainfall rate contained in the prediction data.

3. The method according to claim 2 , wherein the pollutant reduction prediction is represented by equation ∫ t1 t2 I 0 L·(1−e −R )·dt, wherein I 0 represents the initial pollution status variable of the insulator; L represents an elimination coefficient; R represents the rainfall rate; t 1 represents the time corresponding to the current pollution status of the insulator; and t 2 represents a moment in future.

4. The method according to claim 1 , wherein acquiring the current pollution status of the insulator comprises:
determining a basic pollution status based on the position of the insulator in a pollution area distribution; and
determining the current pollution status after updating the basic pollution status.

5. The method according to claim 4 , wherein the pollution area distribution is a second pollution area distribution determined based on a first pollution area distribution and the insulator pollution grade calculating model, and the first pollution area distribution is determined based on the historical data.

6. The method according to claim 5 , wherein determining the second pollution area distribution based on the first pollution area distribution and the insulator pollution grade calculating model comprises:
determining the insulator pollution grade of each lattice point based on the first pollution area distribution and the insulator pollution grade calculating model; and
determining the second pollution area distribution based on the insulator pollution grade of each lattice point.

7. The method according to claim 1 , wherein the prediction data comprises at least one of: weather data, environment data, and geographic data.

8. The device according to claim 7 , wherein the pollutant reduction prediction is at least associated with rainfall rate contained in the prediction data.

9. The device according to claim 8 , wherein the pollutant reduction prediction is represented by equation ∫ t1 t2 I 0 L·(1−e −R )·dt, wherein I 0 represents the initial pollution status variable of the insulator; L represents an elimination coefficient; R represents the rainfall rate; t 1 represents the time corresponding to the current pollution status of the insulator; and t 2 represents a moment in future.

10. A device for predicting insulator pollution grade, the device comprising:
a processor communicatively coupled to a memory, the processor configured to:
acquire prediction data affecting the insulator pollution grade;
acquire the current pollution status of the insulator;
predict the insulator pollution grade based on the prediction data, the current pollution status and an insulator pollution grade calculating model, wherein the insulator pollution grade calculating model at least includes the initial pollution status variable of the insulator, and a pollutant accumulation prediction and a pollutant reduction prediction on the basis of the initial pollution status variable, wherein the pollutant accumulation prediction is at least associated with air density, air speed and humidity contained in the prediction data, and
wherein the pollutant accumulation prediction is represented by equation ∫ t1 t2 ρDV·e −r 2 +RH ·dt, in which D represents average sea salt concentration in the area which the insulator is located in, ρ represents the air density, V represents the air speed, r represents the vertical distance from the insulator to coastline, RH represents the relative humidity of the air, t 1 represents the time corresponding to the current pollution status of the insulator; and t 2 represents a moment in future;
at least one of the accumulation prediction and the reduction prediction being associated with the prediction data, and the initial pollution status variable being associated with the current pollution status;
determine the probability that pollution flashover occurs on the insulator based on the predicted insulator pollution grade and an insulator pollution flashover model, wherein the pollution flashover model represents a relationship between the insulator pollution grade and pollution flashover occurrence;
generate a visual presentation of the current pollution status of the insulator;
generate a disaster warning, wherein classification of the disaster warning is based at least in part on the pollutant accumulation prediction; and
adjust a routing for an inspection and cleaning plan for the insulator based on the current pollution status of the insulator.

11. The device according to claim 10 , wherein the processor is further configured to:
determine a basic pollution status based on the position of the insulator in the pollution area distribution; and
determine the current pollution status after updating the basic pollution status.

12. The device according to claim 11 , wherein the pollution area distribution is a second pollution area distribution determined based on a first pollution area distribution and the insulator pollution grade calculating model, and the first pollution area distribution is determined based on the historical data.

13. The device according to claim 12 , wherein the processor is further configured to:
determine the insulator pollution grade of each lattice point based on the first pollution area distribution and the insulator pollution grade calculating model; and
det

Assignees

• IBM

Inventors

• Bai Xin Xin
• Dong Jin
• Du Hui
• Rui Xiao Guang
• Wang hai feng
• Xia Xi
• Xie Bao Guo
• Yin Wen Jun
• Zhang Meng
• Zhang Ya Nan

Classifications

• G06Q10/20 Primary

  Administration of product repair or maintenance · CPC title

• G06Q10/04

  Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" (market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202) · CPC title

• Y04S10/50

  Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications · CPC title