Predicting social, economic and learning outcomes

Patent metadata

Field	Value
Publication number	US-10318671-B2
Application number	US-201415306553-A
Country	US
Kind code	B2
Filing date	May 28, 2014
Priority date	May 28, 2014
Publication date	Jun 11, 2019
Grant date	Jun 11, 2019

Abstract

One example includes predicting social, economic, and learning outcomes for a geographic entity at a future time. The outcomes are predicted using near-real-time student data indicators and correlations between the indicators and the outcomes.

First claim

What is claimed is:

1. A processor-implemented method for predicting social, economic, and learning outcomes for a geographic entity at a future time, comprising:
receiving at a server student data indicators for each of a plurality of students, the indicators provided in near-real-time from each of a corresponding plurality of student computers;
aggregating each indicator for the plurality of students to form a corresponding aggregate indicator;
calculating at the server, from time series data that relates the aggregate indicators to social, economic, and learning outcomes for a set of peer entities, correlation factors between each aggregate indicator and each social, economic, and learning outcome;
predicting at the server, using the correlation factors and the aggregate indicators, the social, economic, and learning outcomes for the geographic entity at the future time; and
evaluating at the server an effect on at least one of the predicted outcomes that would result at the future time if at least one of the aggregate indicators is modified from an actual value to a different simulated value, wherein the effect is generated by at least one monte carlo simulation that uses the modified aggregate indicators.

2. The method of claim 1 , wherein the evaluating comprises:
selecting at least one of the outcomes;
modifying at least one aggregate indicator; and
performing a monte carlo simulation to determine a modified outcome, corresponding to each selected outcome, for the geographic entity at the future time based on the correlation factors and the at least one modified aggregate indicator.

3. The method of claim 1 , comprising:
presenting at least one of the predicted outcomes to a user via an interactive dashboard that allows the user to modify at least one aggregate indicator and observe a corresponding effect of the modification on the at least one outcome.

4. The method of claim 1 , comprising:
accessing a plurality of internationally comparable datasets provided by at least one of the World Bank, Unesco, Unicef, the World Economic Forum, the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and the International Educational Assessment organization (IEA), to obtain the time series data.

5. The method of claim 1 , wherein the correlation factors are overall correlation factors,
wherein the time series data comprises data for each of a set of individual years, and
wherein the calculating comprises:
performing, using the data for each year, a mass correlation to determine individual correlation factors between each aggregate indicator and each outcome for each year; and
for each aggregate indicator and outcome pair, generating from the individual correlation factors for that pair an overall correlation factor for that pair.

6. The method of claim 1 , wherein the time series data comprises data for each of a set of individual years, and wherein the predicting comprises:
determining how the correlation factor for each aggregate indicator and outcome pair changes over the set of individual years;
projecting, for each aggregate indicator and outcome pair, the correlation factor at the future time; and
using the projected correlation factors to predict the outcomes at the future time.

7. The method of claim 1 , wherein the receiving comprises:
receiving the student data indicators from a plurality of computers each associated with one of the plurality of students, wherein the plurality of students includes all students in the geographic entity who have an assigned computer and wherein each computer automatically provides the indicators in near-real-time.

8. The method of claim 7 , wherein at least some of the student data indicators comprise a mobility indicator indicative of geolocation of the assigned computer, a configuration indicator indicative of a configuration of the assigned computer, and a usage indicator indicative of student interactivity with the assigned computer.

9. The method of claim 1 ,
wherein the receiving includes receiving additional student data indicators indicative of at least one of demography, attendance, behavior, and academic performance for each of the plurality of students, and
wherein the aggregating includes aggregating each additional student data indicator for the plurality of students to form a corresponding aggregate indicator.

10. The method of claim 1 , further comprising:
repeating the aggregating, calculating, and predicting in response to receiving new near-real-time student data indicators for at least one of the students.

11. A server, comprising:
an acquisition module to receive, from a plurality of student computers of a particular geographic entity in near-real-time, student data indicators generated by the plurality of student computers;
an access module to obtain from a database external to the server and the student computers time series data that relates the indicators to social, economic, and learning outcomes for peer entities; and
a predictive correlator coupled to the acquisition and access modules to
aggregate the indicators for the plurality of students,
correlate each aggregate indicator with each social, economic, and learning outcome,
predict the social, economic, and learning outcomes for the particular geographic entity at the future time based upon the aggregate indicators and the correlations, and
evaluate an effect on at least one of the predicted outcomes that would result if at least one of the aggregate indicators is modified from an actual value to a different simulated value, wherein the effect is generated by at least one monte carlo simulation that uses the modified aggregate indicators.

12. The server of claim 11 , comprising:
a visualization module to generate an interactive dashboard, displayable on a client computer coupled to the server, of at least some of the predicted social, economic, and learning outcomes for the particular geographic entity at the future time to a user.

13. The server of claim 11 , comprising:
a monte carlo simulator coupled to the predictive correlator to receive from a client computer a modification to at least one aggregate indicator and to predict in response at least one modified outcome for the particular geographic entity at the future time based on the at least one modified aggregate indicator.

14. The server of claim 11 , wherein the acquisition module obtains the near-real-time student data indicators from an indicator store, coupled to the server, that receives the indicators from the plurality of student computers.

15. A user interface dashboard displayable by a computer, comprising:
a plurality of outcome components to display predicted social, economic, and learning outcomes, received from a server, for a particular geographic entity at a future time, each outcome determined from near-real-time student data indicators acquired from a plurality of student computers, and from time series data for a set of peer entities that relates the indicators in aggregated form to the outcomes;
at least one control component to user-modify a corresponding indicator in aggregate form from an actual value to a different simulated value; and
at least one modified outcome component to display a social, economic, or learning outcome at the future time as modified responsive to the at least one control component, the modified outcome generated at the server by at least one monte carlo simulation that uses the modified indicator in aggregate form.

Assignees

• Hewlett Packard Development Co

Inventors

• Schmedlen Michael John

Classifications

• G09B19/18

  Book-keeping or economics · CPC title

• G06F30/20 Primary

  Design optimisation, verification or simulation (optimisation, verification or simulation of circuit designs G06F30/30) · CPC title

• G09B19/00

  Teaching not covered by other main groups of this subclass (teaching or practice apparatus for gun-aiming or gun-laying F41G3/26) · CPC title

• G06Q10/06375

  Prediction of business process outcome or impact based on a proposed change · CPC title

• G06F2111/10

  Numerical modelling · CPC title